Do timely local data give an earlier read on borough unemployment?

A complementary early-warning check against the official county rate (BLS LAUS), which lags and is revised each year.

What the data says

September 2026. Levels and trends from official and administrative data, separate from the early-warning test.

There is a job risk, and it is concentrated

Unemployment averaged 5.2% citywide over the last 12 months, up 0.15 points on a year earlier and 1.27 points above 2019. The Bronx is highest on every stress measure: unemployment 7.1%, youth unemployment 22.9%, NEET 16 to 19 12.0%.

A slow softening, not a shock

More people are on UI than a year ago (+6.0%), but new claims are lower than a year ago in every borough, so people are staying on benefits longer rather than more losing jobs. No weekly spike. Labour force is growing (0.6% on 12-month averages), so no hidden-vulnerability flag.

Youth conditions worsened most

Youth unemployment (16 to 24) is far above 2019 in Brooklyn and Manhattan, more than the headline rate suggests. Margins of error are wide (±2 to 5 points), and NEET for 16 to 24 year-olds is not measured by borough yet.

The tool can show it, to a degree

The pipeline brings 14 indicators onto one borough frame, flags breaks and confidence, and ranks stress transparently. Toggle the indicators below to see how the picture holds up.

No early signal is validated yet

None of the timely series moved ahead of the official rate reliably (scorecard below). Partly that is the test window: 2010 to 2019 had no recession to anticipate.

The data that is missing

3 of the JRR's Pillar 1 indicators have no borough data (NEET 16 to 24, underemployment, projected jobs gap), and validating an early signal needs pre-2020 county claims and HRA, Medicaid and transit history. See the gaps list in the explorer.

Explore the boroughs

Unemployment rate

less stressmore stress
BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island

Pillar 1 data coverage

Indicators

Click a name to colour the map. Tick to include it in the stress ranking.

Bronx

Click a borough on the map to see all its numbers.

IndicatorBoroughCityRank (1 = most stress)ConfidenceSource

Not yet. None of the 7 signals tested gave an earlier read that held across all five boroughs and after 2022; 5 more are too new to test.

0 / 7signals pass in all 5 boroughs
0 / 35signal-borough pairs pass
0 / 5boroughs with a weekly claims spike, week ending 2026-10-24
910tests run, corrected per signal and across signals

Scorecard

pass passes the pre-set rule · no does not · not testable too little history · monitor watch signal, not validated

SignalBronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten IslandShared leadJRR useConfidence
Tested against the borough rule
UI beneficiaries (per labour force)residence · 2001–2026 nonononono none none yet Low
medicaid_enrollmentresidence · 2012–2026 nonononono none none yet Low
311 housing complaints (per labour force)residence · 2011–2026 nonononono none none yet Low
NYS business dissolutionsworkplacebasis mismatch · 2001–2026 nonononono none none yet Low
NYS business formationsworkplacebasis mismatch · 2001–2026 nonononono none none yet Low
WARN layoff noticesworkplacebasis mismatch · 2006–2026 nonononono none none yet Low
WARN workers affectedworkplacebasis mismatch · 2006–2026 nonononono none Rating Watch test: not shown Low
Watch list: too new to test, or outside the borough rule
DCWP licences expiredworkplacebasis mismatch · from 2022 not testable under 5 years of 2010–2019 history n/aContext onlyLow
DCWP licences issuedworkplacebasis mismatch · from 2022 not testable under 5 years of 2010–2019 history n/aContext onlyLow
Residential evictions (per labour force)residence · from 2017 not testable under 5 years of 2010–2019 history n/aContext onlyLow
Subway morning entriesresidence (assumed) · from 2017 not testable under 5 years of 2010–2019 history n/aContext onlyLow
New UI claims (per labour force)residence · from 2019 monitor weekly claims monitor; under 5 years of 2010–2019 history n/aWeekly monitorLow
New UI claims, citywideresidence · one geography · 2003–2026 no citywide check, outside the borough rule 0 moNo recommendationNo grade

Hover a verdict for the borough's best lead, correlation and the rules it did not meet. Workplace-based signals are compared with a residence-based official rate and carry a basis-mismatch flag. Data confidence is a qualitative label, not a Pillar 1 score or grade.

Watch now

Signals too new to pass the 5-year test, shown for monitoring. None is a validated early warning.

Weekly new UI claims vs a year earlier

Week ending 2026-10-24: no borough above the 1.5× threshold.

Weekly new claims against a year earlier, by boroughBronx: 0.81 times a year earlier; Brooklyn: 0.86 times a year earlier; Manhattan: 0.93 times a year earlier; Queens: 0.86 times a year earlier; Staten Island: 0.76 times a year earlier4-week average of new claims ÷ same 4 weeks a year earlier. Dashed line: spike threshold (1.5×).BronxBronx, week ending 2026-10-24: 0.81× a year earlier0.81×BrooklynBrooklyn, week ending 2026-10-24: 0.86× a year earlier0.86×ManhattanManhattan, week ending 2026-10-24: 0.93× a year earlier0.93×QueensQueens, week ending 2026-10-24: 0.86× a year earlier0.86×Staten IslandStaten Island, week ending 2026-10-24: 0.76× a year earlier0.76×Jan 2026Apr 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026

Latest 4 weeks

BoroughAvg / weekvs year earlier
Bronx1,135-19%
Brooklyn1,778-14%
Manhattan1,160-7%
Queens1,412-14%
Staten Island235-24%

Flag at 1.5× the same weekday nearest one year earlier; no comparison into the COVID period. Source: NYS DOL weekly county claims via Opportunity Insights.

Weekday morning subway entries

3 months to 2026-09: Bronx 59, Brooklyn 66, Manhattan 70, Queens 71, Staten Island 50 (2019 = 100).

Weekday 6-10am subway entries, index 2019 = 100 (3-month average)Bronx 2026: 58.6; Brooklyn 2026: 66.3; Manhattan 2026: 69.6; Queens 2026: 71.1; Staten Island 2026: 49.601020304050607080901001101202019202120232025COVID periodBronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island

MTA hourly ridership, weekdays 6–10am. Residence basis assumed (boardings at a borough's stations); Staten Island counts two fare stations only. From 2017; not testable.

Residential evictions

12 months to 2026-10: 16,642 executed, 86% of the 2017–2019 yearly average.

Residential evictions per 10,000 labour-force members (3-month average)Bronx 2026: 8.6; Brooklyn 2026: 3.1; Manhattan 2026: 2.0; Queens 2026: 2.4; Staten Island 2026: 1.905101520172019202120232025moratoriumBronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island

City Marshals' executed residential evictions (NYC Open Data 6z8x-wfk4), counted by borough and month; addresses never stored. Moratorium shaded. From 2017; not testable.

Signals

Correlation at each borough's best lead, 2010–2019, then each signal against the official rate (year-on-year changes, standardised).

All signals at a glance

Correlation by proxy and boroughui_per_lf: Bronx +0.25 at 5, Brooklyn +0.36 at 5, Manhattan +0.45 at 6, Queens +0.32 at 6, Staten Island +0.38 at 0; medicaid_enrollment: Bronx -0.75 at 0, Brooklyn -0.66 at 0, Manhattan -0.79 at 0, Queens -0.78 at 0, Staten Island -0.78 at 0; n311_housing: Bronx -0.15 at 6, Brooklyn -0.11 at 4, Manhattan +0.18 at 2, Queens -0.12 at 0, Staten Island +0.09 at 2; nysdos_dissolutions: Bronx -0.17 at 3, Brooklyn -0.15 at 5, Manhattan -0.12 at 5, Queens -0.16 at 5, Staten Island -0.14 at 5; nysdos_formations: Bronx -0.14 at 3, Brooklyn -0.20 at 6, Manhattan -0.21 at 3, Queens -0.24 at 3, Staten Island -0.11 at 3; warn_notices: Bronx -0.11 at 4, Brooklyn +0.11 at 1, Manhattan +0.32 at 5, Queens -0.13 at 0, Staten Island +0.07 at 3; warn_workers: Bronx -0.12 at 0, Brooklyn +0.17 at 2, Manhattan -0.11 at 1, Queens -0.19 at 5, Staten Island -0.13 at 6BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten IslandUI beneficiaries (per labour force)Bronx: best lead 5 months, r = +0.25, adjusted p = 0.591, not useful+0.25 · 5 moBrooklyn: best lead 5 months, r = +0.36, adjusted p = 0.521, not useful+0.36 · 5 moManhattan: best lead 6 months, r = +0.45, adjusted p = 0.521, not useful+0.45 · 6 moQueens: best lead 6 months, r = +0.32, adjusted p = 0.521, not useful+0.32 · 6 moStaten Island: best lead 0 months, r = +0.38, adjusted p = 0.455, not useful+0.38 · 0 momedicaid_enrollmentBronx: best lead 0 months, r = -0.75, adjusted p = 0.054, not useful-0.75 · 0 moBrooklyn: best lead 0 months, r = -0.66, adjusted p = 0.105, not useful-0.66 · 0 moManhattan: best lead 0 months, r = -0.79, adjusted p = 0.028, not useful-0.79 · 0 mo *Queens: best lead 0 months, r = -0.78, adjusted p = 0.028, not useful-0.78 · 0 mo *Staten Island: best lead 0 months, r = -0.78, adjusted p = 0.039, not useful-0.78 · 0 mo *311 housing complaints (per labour force)Bronx: best lead 6 months, r = -0.15, adjusted p = 0.724, not useful-0.15 · 6 moBrooklyn: best lead 4 months, r = -0.11, adjusted p = 0.724, not useful-0.11 · 4 moManhattan: best lead 2 months, r = +0.18, adjusted p = 0.724, not useful+0.18 · 2 moQueens: best lead 0 months, r = -0.12, adjusted p = 0.724, not useful-0.12 · 0 moStaten Island: best lead 2 months, r = +0.09, adjusted p = 0.724, not useful+0.09 · 2 moNYS business dissolutionsBronx: best lead 3 months, r = -0.17, adjusted p = 0.860, not useful-0.17 · 3 moBrooklyn: best lead 5 months, r = -0.15, adjusted p = 0.860, not useful-0.15 · 5 moManhattan: best lead 5 months, r = -0.12, adjusted p = 0.860, not useful-0.12 · 5 moQueens: best lead 5 months, r = -0.16, adjusted p = 0.860, not useful-0.16 · 5 moStaten Island: best lead 5 months, r = -0.14, adjusted p = 0.860, not useful-0.14 · 5 moNYS business formationsBronx: best lead 3 months, r = -0.14, adjusted p = 0.670, not useful-0.14 · 3 moBrooklyn: best lead 6 months, r = -0.20, adjusted p = 0.670, not useful-0.20 · 6 moManhattan: best lead 3 months, r = -0.21, adjusted p = 0.670, not useful-0.21 · 3 moQueens: best lead 3 months, r = -0.24, adjusted p = 0.666, not useful-0.24 · 3 moStaten Island: best lead 3 months, r = -0.11, adjusted p = 0.670, not useful-0.11 · 3 moWARN layoff noticesBronx: best lead 4 months, r = -0.11, adjusted p = 0.760, not useful-0.11 · 4 moBrooklyn: best lead 1 months, r = +0.11, adjusted p = 0.760, not useful+0.11 · 1 moManhattan: best lead 5 months, r = +0.32, adjusted p = 0.280, not useful+0.32 · 5 moQueens: best lead 0 months, r = -0.13, adjusted p = 0.760, not useful-0.13 · 0 moStaten Island: best lead 3 months, r = +0.07, adjusted p = 0.865, not useful+0.07 · 3 moWARN workers affectedBronx: best lead 0 months, r = -0.12, adjusted p = 0.653, not useful-0.12 · 0 moBrooklyn: best lead 2 months, r = +0.17, adjusted p = 0.446, not useful+0.17 · 2 moManhattan: best lead 1 months, r = -0.11, adjusted p = 0.615, not useful-0.11 · 1 moQueens: best lead 5 months, r = -0.19, adjusted p = 0.416, not useful-0.19 · 5 moStaten Island: best lead 6 months, r = -0.13, adjusted p = 0.571, not useful-0.13 · 6 mo

Blue moves with the official rate, orange against it; stronger shade, stronger relationship; * significant after correction (within each signal, 70 tests; across signals, 490).

medicaid_enrollment

0 of 5 boroughs pass · residence

medicaid_enrollment and the official rateYear-on-year change in medicaid_enrollment and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.medicaid_enrollmentUnemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

311 housing complaints (per labour force)

0 of 5 boroughs pass · residence

311 housing complaints (per labour force) and the official rateYear-on-year change in 311 housing complaints (per labour force) and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.311 housing complaints (per labour force)Unemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

NYS business dissolutions

0 of 5 boroughs pass · workplace (basis mismatch)

NYS business dissolutions and the official rateYear-on-year change in NYS business dissolutions and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.NYS business dissolutionsUnemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

NYS business formations

0 of 5 boroughs pass · workplace (basis mismatch)

NYS business formations and the official rateYear-on-year change in NYS business formations and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.NYS business formationsUnemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

WARN layoff notices

0 of 5 boroughs pass · workplace (basis mismatch)

WARN layoff notices and the official rateYear-on-year change in WARN layoff notices and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.WARN layoff noticesUnemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

WARN workers affected

0 of 5 boroughs pass · workplace (basis mismatch)

WARN workers affected and the official rateYear-on-year change in WARN workers affected and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.WARN workers affectedUnemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

WARN spikes as a Rating Watch trigger: not shown

In the 28 borough-months with the largest WARN layoffs, the rate rose within 6 months 93% of the time, against 95% after other months (one-sided Fisher test, p = 0.81).

Pre-registered. The outcome is common after any month, so the test has little power; a stricter outcome is proposed for the next run.

Citywide new UI claims, 2003 onward: not useful citywide

Correlation by lead, 2010 to 2019Correlation of UI claim changes with later unemployment-rate changes at each lead, by borough.-1.0-0.50+0.5+1.00123456Lead in months (UI claims first)New York City, lead 0: r = -0.09, adjusted p = 0.896New York City, lead 1: r = -0.01, adjusted p = 0.896New York City, lead 2: r = -0.03, adjusted p = 0.896New York City, lead 3: r = -0.03, adjusted p = 0.896New York City, lead 4: r = -0.02, adjusted p = 0.896New York City, lead 5: r = 0.06, adjusted p = 0.896New York City, lead 6: r = 0.08, adjusted p = 0.896New York Citynot significant

Best lead 0 months, r = -0.09, adjusted p = 0.90. In 2008–09, seasonally adjusted claims peaked 7 months before the rate (described, not tested). BLS uses claims inside LAUS, so any lead would be partly built in.

UI beneficiaries deep dive

The Phase 1 signal: monthly by county, residence-based like LAUS.

Verdict by borough

Verdict by boroughBronx: not useful; Brooklyn: not useful; Manhattan: not useful; Queens: not useful; Staten Island: not usefulBronxNot usefullead 5 mo · hit 56%BrooklynNot usefullead 5 mo · hit 54%ManhattanNot usefullead 6 mo · hit 55%QueensNot usefullead 6 mo · hit 55%Staten IslandNot usefullead 0 mo · hit n/a

Correlation by lead, 2010–2019

Correlation by lead, 2010 to 2019Correlation of UI claim changes with later unemployment-rate changes at each lead, by borough.-1.0-0.50+0.5+1.00123456Lead in months (UI claims first)Bronx, lead 0: r = 0.03, adjusted p = 0.910Bronx, lead 1: r = 0.12, adjusted p = 0.760Bronx, lead 2: r = 0.18, adjusted p = 0.607Bronx, lead 3: r = 0.20, adjusted p = 0.596Bronx, lead 4: r = 0.22, adjusted p = 0.591Bronx, lead 5: r = 0.25, adjusted p = 0.591Bronx, lead 6: r = 0.23, adjusted p = 0.591BronxBrooklyn, lead 0: r = 0.16, adjusted p = 0.650Brooklyn, lead 1: r = 0.25, adjusted p = 0.591Brooklyn, lead 2: r = 0.30, adjusted p = 0.529Brooklyn, lead 3: r = 0.31, adjusted p = 0.521Brooklyn, lead 4: r = 0.32, adjusted p = 0.521Brooklyn, lead 5: r = 0.36, adjusted p = 0.521Brooklyn, lead 6: r = 0.35, adjusted p = 0.521BrooklynManhattan, lead 0: r = 0.15, adjusted p = 0.760Manhattan, lead 1: r = 0.25, adjusted p = 0.591Manhattan, lead 2: r = 0.32, adjusted p = 0.533Manhattan, lead 3: r = 0.36, adjusted p = 0.521Manhattan, lead 4: r = 0.39, adjusted p = 0.521Manhattan, lead 5: r = 0.44, adjusted p = 0.521Manhattan, lead 6: r = 0.45, adjusted p = 0.521ManhattanQueens, lead 0: r = 0.17, adjusted p = 0.650Queens, lead 1: r = 0.24, adjusted p = 0.591Queens, lead 2: r = 0.26, adjusted p = 0.591Queens, lead 3: r = 0.25, adjusted p = 0.591Queens, lead 4: r = 0.27, adjusted p = 0.591Queens, lead 5: r = 0.32, adjusted p = 0.521Queens, lead 6: r = 0.32, adjusted p = 0.521QueensStaten Island, lead 0: r = 0.38, adjusted p = 0.455Staten Island, lead 1: r = 0.38, adjusted p = 0.455Staten Island, lead 2: r = 0.32, adjusted p = 0.521Staten Island, lead 3: r = 0.23, adjusted p = 0.548Staten Island, lead 4: r = 0.18, adjusted p = 0.591Staten Island, lead 5: r = 0.19, adjusted p = 0.591Staten Island, lead 6: r = 0.18, adjusted p = 0.591Staten Islandnot significant

Direction calls from 2022

Out-of-sample direction calls, 2022 onwardBronx: 56% vs baseline 77%; Brooklyn: 54% vs baseline 65%; Manhattan: 55% vs baseline 55%; Queens: 55% vs baseline 75%; Staten Island: not applicable (lead 0)0%25%50%75%100%50% = coin flipBronxUI claims: 56% of 52 months56%Persistence baseline: 77%BrooklynUI claims: 54% of 52 months54%Persistence baseline: 65%ManhattanUI claims: 55% of 51 months55%Persistence baseline: 55%QueensUI claims: 55% of 51 months55%Persistence baseline: 75%Staten Islandn/a: best lead is 0 months (no earlier read)UI claims called directionbaseline: latest change continues

Summary

BoroughBest leadrAdj. pHit rateBaselineVerdict
Bronx50.250.5956%77%not useful
Brooklyn50.360.5254%65%not useful
Manhattan60.450.5255%55%not useful
Queens60.320.5255%75%not useful
Staten Island00.380.45n/an/anot useful

UI claims and the official rate over time

UI claims and the official rate, 2010 to latestYear-on-year change in UI beneficiaries per labour force and in the LAUS unemployment rate, standardised against 2010 to 2019, one panel per borough, COVID period shaded.UI beneficiaries per labour forceUnemployment rate (LAUS)BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island201020122014201620182020202220242026COVID period

COVID shock, March 2020 to December 2021

Before and peak, March 2020 to December 2021Bronx: UI peak 24.3% (2020-07), rate peak 26.5% (2020-05); Brooklyn: UI peak 19.2% (2020-06), rate peak 21.1% (2020-05); Manhattan: UI peak 14.7% (2020-06), rate peak 16.8% (2020-05); Queens: UI peak 21.9% (2020-06), rate peak 23.4% (2020-05); Staten Island: UI peak 17.6% (2020-05), rate peak 19.6% (2020-05)UI claims per labour force0%9%18%26%Bronx12 months before: 2.2%Peak 24.3% in 2020-072020-07Brooklyn12 months before: 1.5%Peak 19.2% in 2020-062020-06Manhattan12 months before: 1.3%Peak 14.7% in 2020-062020-06Queens12 months before: 1.2%Peak 21.9% in 2020-062020-06Staten Island12 months before: 1.4%Peak 17.6% in 2020-052020-05Unemployment rate0%10%19%29%12 months before: 5.4%Peak 26.5% in 2020-052020-0512 months before: 3.9%Peak 21.1% in 2020-052020-0512 months before: 3.5%Peak 16.8% in 2020-052020-0512 months before: 3.5%Peak 23.4% in 2020-052020-0512 months before: 3.9%Peak 19.6% in 2020-052020-0512 months beforepeak (month shown)

Excluded from the tests. UI and LAUS are different measures, so gaps are expected from those definitions.

Labour-force check by month

Months where the rate fell while the labour force shrank170 borough-months flagged between 2010-01 and 2026-09.BronxBronx 2016-04Bronx 2016-05Bronx 2016-06Bronx 2016-07Bronx 2016-08Bronx 2016-09Bronx 2016-10Bronx 2016-11Bronx 2016-12Bronx 2017-01Bronx 2018-06Bronx 2018-07Bronx 2018-08Bronx 2018-09Bronx 2018-10Bronx 2018-11Bronx 2018-12Bronx 2019-01Bronx 2019-02Bronx 2019-03Bronx 2019-04Bronx 2019-05Bronx 2019-06Bronx 2019-07Bronx 2019-08Bronx 2019-09Bronx 2019-10Bronx 2019-11Bronx 2019-12Bronx 2020-01Bronx 2020-02Bronx 2020-03Bronx 2022-04Bronx 2022-05Bronx 2022-06Bronx 2022-07Bronx 2022-08Bronx 2022-09Bronx 2022-10Bronx 2022-11Bronx 2022-12Bronx 2023-01Bronx 2023-02Bronx 2023-03Bronx 2023-04Bronx 2023-05Bronx 2023-06Bronx 2023-07Bronx 2023-08Bronx 2023-09BrooklynBrooklyn 2018-07Brooklyn 2018-08Brooklyn 2018-09Brooklyn 2018-10Brooklyn 2018-11Brooklyn 2018-12Brooklyn 2019-01Brooklyn 2019-02Brooklyn 2019-03Brooklyn 2019-04Brooklyn 2019-05Brooklyn 2019-06Brooklyn 2019-07Brooklyn 2019-08ManhattanManhattan 2011-01Manhattan 2011-02Manhattan 2011-03Manhattan 2011-04Manhattan 2011-05Manhattan 2011-06Manhattan 2011-07Manhattan 2011-08Manhattan 2011-09Manhattan 2011-10Manhattan 2011-11Manhattan 2016-03Manhattan 2016-04Manhattan 2016-05Manhattan 2016-06Manhattan 2016-07Manhattan 2016-08Manhattan 2016-09Manhattan 2016-10Manhattan 2016-11Manhattan 2016-12Manhattan 2017-01Manhattan 2017-02Manhattan 2017-03Manhattan 2017-04Manhattan 2017-05Manhattan 2018-09Manhattan 2018-10Manhattan 2018-11Manhattan 2018-12Manhattan 2019-01Manhattan 2019-02Manhattan 2019-03Manhattan 2019-04Manhattan 2019-05Manhattan 2019-06Manhattan 2021-10Manhattan 2021-11Manhattan 2021-12QueensQueens 2011-01Queens 2011-02Queens 2011-03Queens 2011-04Queens 2011-05Queens 2011-06Queens 2011-07Queens 2011-08Queens 2011-09Queens 2011-10Queens 2016-04Queens 2016-05Queens 2016-06Queens 2016-07Queens 2016-08Queens 2016-09Queens 2016-10Queens 2016-11Queens 2016-12Queens 2017-01Queens 2017-02Queens 2017-03Queens 2017-04Queens 2018-07Queens 2018-08Queens 2018-09Queens 2018-10Queens 2018-11Queens 2018-12Queens 2019-01Queens 2019-02Queens 2019-03Queens 2019-04Queens 2019-05Queens 2019-06Queens 2019-07Queens 2019-08Queens 2019-09Queens 2019-10Queens 2019-12Queens 2022-12Queens 2023-01Queens 2023-02Staten IslandStaten Island 2011-06Staten Island 2011-07Staten Island 2011-08Staten Island 2011-09Staten Island 2011-10Staten Island 2011-11Staten Island 2016-01Staten Island 2016-02Staten Island 2016-03Staten Island 2016-04Staten Island 2016-05Staten Island 2016-06Staten Island 2016-07Staten Island 2016-08Staten Island 2018-09Staten Island 2018-10Staten Island 2018-11Staten Island 2018-12Staten Island 2019-01Staten Island 2019-02Staten Island 2019-03Staten Island 2019-04Staten Island 2019-05Staten Island 2019-06201020122014201620182020202220242026

Months where, on 12-month averages, the rate fell while the labour force also shrank.

Official baselines

Annual and quarterly context for the JRR youth indicators and the workplace benchmark; not part of the monthly lead tests.

Youth unemployment rate, ages 16 to 24

Youth unemployment rate, ages 16 to 24Bronx 2025: 22.9%; Brooklyn 2025: 18.3%; Manhattan 2025: 15.1%; Queens 2025: 11.0%; Staten Island 2025: 16.2%0%10%20%30%40%20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025Bronx 2005-01: 25.7% ± 2.8Bronx 2006-01: 26.8% ± 2.5Bronx 2007-01: 24.0% ± 2.4Bronx 2008-01: 21.1% ± 2.4Bronx 2009-01: 29.0% ± 2.6Bronx 2010-01: 32.8% ± 2.9Bronx 2011-01: 33.8% ± 2.6Bronx 2012-01: 31.8% ± 2.5Bronx 2013-01: 31.1% ± 3.1Bronx 2014-01: 25.1% ± 2.6Bronx 2015-01: 24.3% ± 2.4Bronx 2016-01: 21.5% ± 2.7Bronx 2017-01: 25.3% ± 2.8Bronx 2018-01: 22.2% ± 2.8Bronx 2019-01: 21.1% ± 3.0Bronx 2021-01: 32.3% ± 4.0Bronx 2022-01: 19.8% ± 3.4Bronx 2023-01: 18.6% ± 2.8Bronx 2024-01: 18.0% ± 2.7Bronx 2025-01: 22.9% ± 4.1BronxBrooklyn 2005-01: 23.1% ± 1.9Brooklyn 2006-01: 18.7% ± 1.8Brooklyn 2007-01: 15.7% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2008-01: 18.0% ± 1.8Brooklyn 2009-01: 22.7% ± 2.0Brooklyn 2010-01: 21.9% ± 1.8Brooklyn 2011-01: 27.3% ± 2.0Brooklyn 2012-01: 25.1% ± 2.0Brooklyn 2013-01: 23.2% ± 1.7Brooklyn 2014-01: 20.1% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2015-01: 17.7% ± 1.7Brooklyn 2016-01: 17.0% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2017-01: 14.4% ± 1.8Brooklyn 2018-01: 12.8% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2019-01: 11.5% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2021-01: 21.5% ± 2.4Brooklyn 2022-01: 16.9% ± 2.1Brooklyn 2023-01: 15.2% ± 2.0Brooklyn 2024-01: 17.2% ± 2.2Brooklyn 2025-01: 18.3% ± 2.5BrooklynManhattan 2005-01: 18.2% ± 2.5Manhattan 2006-01: 16.1% ± 2.2Manhattan 2007-01: 17.8% ± 2.4Manhattan 2008-01: 15.9% ± 2.3Manhattan 2009-01: 18.5% ± 2.6Manhattan 2010-01: 17.8% ± 2.4Manhattan 2011-01: 17.6% ± 2.3Manhattan 2012-01: 18.8% ± 2.8Manhattan 2013-01: 14.8% ± 2.6Manhattan 2014-01: 17.1% ± 2.2Manhattan 2015-01: 14.1% ± 2.4Manhattan 2016-01: 11.5% ± 2.2Manhattan 2017-01: 13.5% ± 2.4Manhattan 2018-01: 14.7% ± 2.2Manhattan 2019-01: 9.6% ± 2.3Manhattan 2021-01: 13.7% ± 2.2Manhattan 2022-01: 9.3% ± 1.9Manhattan 2023-01: 13.4% ± 2.5Manhattan 2024-01: 12.2% ± 2.8Manhattan 2025-01: 15.1% ± 3.0ManhattanQueens 2005-01: 19.7% ± 1.9Queens 2006-01: 19.5% ± 1.7Queens 2007-01: 15.8% ± 1.6Queens 2008-01: 18.0% ± 1.8Queens 2009-01: 22.6% ± 1.9Queens 2010-01: 23.1% ± 1.9Queens 2011-01: 21.5% ± 1.8Queens 2012-01: 21.0% ± 1.6Queens 2013-01: 21.9% ± 1.9Queens 2014-01: 17.6% ± 1.8Queens 2015-01: 17.4% ± 1.8Queens 2016-01: 16.8% ± 2.0Queens 2017-01: 13.2% ± 1.8Queens 2018-01: 16.0% ± 2.5Queens 2019-01: 13.1% ± 1.9Queens 2021-01: 21.5% ± 2.6Queens 2022-01: 12.8% ± 1.8Queens 2023-01: 15.6% ± 2.2Queens 2024-01: 13.8% ± 2.2Queens 2025-01: 11.0% ± 2.0QueensStaten Island 2005-01: 20.1% ± 4.1Staten Island 2006-01: 13.0% ± 3.2Staten Island 2007-01: 13.3% ± 4.5Staten Island 2008-01: 14.2% ± 3.5Staten Island 2009-01: 15.6% ± 3.5Staten Island 2010-01: 20.3% ± 4.2Staten Island 2011-01: 23.7% ± 5.3Staten Island 2012-01: 17.5% ± 3.5Staten Island 2013-01: 17.1% ± 4.4Staten Island 2014-01: 15.7% ± 3.4Staten Island 2015-01: 15.8% ± 3.8Staten Island 2016-01: 13.2% ± 3.4Staten Island 2017-01: 8.9% ± 2.5Staten Island 2018-01: 11.1% ± 3.8Staten Island 2019-01: 13.3% ± 4.5Staten Island 2021-01: 17.9% ± 4.7Staten Island 2022-01: 11.5% ± 3.5Staten Island 2023-01: 11.4% ± 4.2Staten Island 2024-01: 17.6% ± 5.3Staten Island 2025-01: 16.2% ± 4.7Staten Island

Not in school and not working, ages 16 to 19

Not in school and not working, ages 16 to 19Bronx 2025: 12.0%; Brooklyn 2025: 7.9%; Manhattan 2024: 6.2%; Queens 2025: 4.9%; Staten Island 2024: 5.3%0%5%10%15%20%20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025Bronx 2005-01: 12.5% ± 2.1Bronx 2006-01: 12.5% ± 1.8Bronx 2007-01: 11.9% ± 1.7Bronx 2008-01: 12.8% ± 2.0Bronx 2009-01: 15.8% ± 2.2Bronx 2010-01: 16.7% ± 2.2Bronx 2011-01: 14.9% ± 2.2Bronx 2012-01: 12.9% ± 1.8Bronx 2013-01: 11.9% ± 2.1Bronx 2014-01: 10.7% ± 1.7Bronx 2015-01: 11.4% ± 2.0Bronx 2016-01: 8.9% ± 1.7Bronx 2017-01: 8.0% ± 1.7Bronx 2018-01: 8.8% ± 1.8Bronx 2019-01: 8.6% ± 2.2Bronx 2021-01: 10.3% ± 2.3Bronx 2022-01: 10.1% ± 2.9Bronx 2023-01: 12.8% ± 3.2Bronx 2024-01: 8.6% ± 2.1Bronx 2025-01: 12.0% ± 3.2BronxBrooklyn 2005-01: 12.0% ± 2.0Brooklyn 2006-01: 11.9% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2007-01: 11.3% ± 1.5Brooklyn 2008-01: 10.9% ± 1.5Brooklyn 2009-01: 11.2% ± 1.5Brooklyn 2010-01: 11.2% ± 1.5Brooklyn 2011-01: 10.3% ± 1.4Brooklyn 2012-01: 10.9% ± 1.3Brooklyn 2013-01: 10.6% ± 1.3Brooklyn 2014-01: 9.8% ± 1.3Brooklyn 2015-01: 9.1% ± 1.3Brooklyn 2016-01: 8.0% ± 1.3Brooklyn 2017-01: 7.3% ± 1.4Brooklyn 2018-01: 9.0% ± 1.5Brooklyn 2019-01: 8.9% ± 1.5Brooklyn 2021-01: 8.3% ± 1.8Brooklyn 2022-01: 6.6% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2023-01: 6.4% ± 1.6Brooklyn 2024-01: 9.9% ± 1.8Brooklyn 2025-01: 7.9% ± 1.9BrooklynManhattan 2005-01: 8.2% ± 2.4Manhattan 2006-01: 6.4% ± 1.6Manhattan 2007-01: 7.2% ± 2.0Manhattan 2008-01: 8.5% ± 2.3Manhattan 2009-01: 10.7% ± 2.4Manhattan 2010-01: 9.7% ± 2.1Manhattan 2011-01: 7.6% ± 2.4Manhattan 2012-01: 7.4% ± 2.5Manhattan 2013-01: 7.1% ± 2.3Manhattan 2014-01: 7.0% ± 1.9Manhattan 2015-01: 4.8% ± 1.6Manhattan 2016-01: 7.6% ± 2.2Manhattan 2017-01: 4.7% ± 1.7Manhattan 2018-01: 5.0% ± 1.8Manhattan 2019-01: 3.3% ± 1.6Manhattan 2021-01: 4.6% ± 0.8Manhattan 2022-01: 4.8% ± 0.9Manhattan 2023-01: 4.7% ± 0.9Manhattan 2024-01: 6.2% ± 2.6ManhattanQueens 2005-01: 8.7% ± 1.8Queens 2006-01: 8.2% ± 1.5Queens 2007-01: 7.1% ± 1.4Queens 2008-01: 7.5% ± 1.4Queens 2009-01: 8.0% ± 1.6Queens 2010-01: 9.0% ± 1.5Queens 2011-01: 6.8% ± 1.2Queens 2012-01: 8.9% ± 1.3Queens 2013-01: 8.2% ± 1.6Queens 2014-01: 6.6% ± 1.2Queens 2015-01: 6.2% ± 1.2Queens 2016-01: 6.2% ± 1.3Queens 2017-01: 4.9% ± 1.2Queens 2018-01: 7.2% ± 1.3Queens 2019-01: 4.0% ± 1.0Queens 2021-01: 6.2% ± 1.5Queens 2022-01: 6.8% ± 1.7Queens 2023-01: 6.5% ± 1.4Queens 2024-01: 5.6% ± 1.5Queens 2025-01: 4.9% ± 1.5QueensStaten Island 2005-01: 5.2% ± 2.6Staten Island 2006-01: 8.4% ± 2.9Staten Island 2007-01: 6.7% ± 2.8Staten Island 2008-01: 6.0% ± 2.7Staten Island 2009-01: 9.6% ± 3.4Staten Island 2010-01: 8.0% ± 3.1Staten Island 2011-01: 7.2% ± 1.3Staten Island 2012-01: 6.1% ± 2.6Staten Island 2013-01: 9.3% ± 3.6Staten Island 2014-01: 5.6% ± 2.7Staten Island 2015-01: 10.5% ± 3.9Staten Island 2016-01: 8.8% ± 3.1Staten Island 2017-01: 7.8% ± 1.3Staten Island 2018-01: 7.4% ± 1.3Staten Island 2019-01: 7.9% ± 1.5Staten Island 2021-01: 6.4% ± 1.3Staten Island 2022-01: 6.1% ± 1.3Staten Island 2023-01: 5.8% ± 1.3Staten Island 2024-01: 5.3% ± 1.2Staten Island

Jobs located in each borough, 2019 = 100

Jobs located in each borough, index 2019 = 100Bronx 2026: 110.6; Brooklyn 2026: 115.9; Manhattan 2026: 98.5; Queens 2026: 103.5; Staten Island 2026: 107.96070809010011012013020112013201520172019202120232025jobs reassigned between boroughsBronx 2010-01: 70.5Bronx 2010-04: 72.9Bronx 2010-07: 71.2Bronx 2010-10: 72.1Bronx 2011-01: 71.7Bronx 2011-04: 73.2Bronx 2011-07: 71.7Bronx 2011-10: 72.7Bronx 2012-01: 71.6Bronx 2012-04: 73.3Bronx 2012-07: 72.2Bronx 2012-10: 73.6Bronx 2013-01: 73.4Bronx 2013-04: 75.5Bronx 2013-07: 74.7Bronx 2013-10: 76.2Bronx 2014-01: 75.8Bronx 2014-04: 77.8Bronx 2014-07: 77.4Bronx 2014-10: 79.0Bronx 2015-01: 90.9Bronx 2015-04: 92.7Bronx 2015-07: 91.4Bronx 2015-10: 93.5Bronx 2016-01: 91.5Bronx 2016-04: 92.9Bronx 2016-07: 91.7Bronx 2016-10: 93.1Bronx 2017-01: 91.3Bronx 2017-04: 93.3Bronx 2017-07: 92.4Bronx 2017-10: 94.5Bronx 2018-01: 97.6Bronx 2018-04: 99.2Bronx 2018-07: 98.0Bronx 2018-10: 100.5Bronx 2019-01: 99.0Bronx 2019-04: 100.4Bronx 2019-07: 99.1Bronx 2019-10: 101.5Bronx 2020-01: 99.6Bronx 2020-04: 86.4Bronx 2020-07: 90.8Bronx 2020-10: 94.6Bronx 2021-01: 92.2Bronx 2021-04: 94.0Bronx 2021-07: 93.5Bronx 2021-10: 97.0Bronx 2022-01: 96.4Bronx 2022-04: 97.5Bronx 2022-07: 96.2Bronx 2022-10: 98.4Bronx 2023-01: 97.8Bronx 2023-04: 99.3Bronx 2023-07: 98.4Bronx 2023-10: 100.4Bronx 2024-01: 101.4Bronx 2024-04: 103.0Bronx 2024-07: 102.0Bronx 2024-10: 104.2Bronx 2025-01: 105.0Bronx 2025-04: 110.4Bronx 2025-07: 109.7Bronx 2025-10: 111.9Bronx 2026-01: 110.6BronxBrooklyn 2010-01: 60.5Brooklyn 2010-04: 62.5Brooklyn 2010-07: 61.4Brooklyn 2010-10: 63.3Brooklyn 2011-01: 62.7Brooklyn 2011-04: 64.1Brooklyn 2011-07: 63.0Brooklyn 2011-10: 64.9Brooklyn 2012-01: 64.1Brooklyn 2012-04: 65.5Brooklyn 2012-07: 64.7Brooklyn 2012-10: 66.1Brooklyn 2013-01: 65.6Brooklyn 2013-04: 67.6Brooklyn 2013-07: 67.0Brooklyn 2013-10: 69.9Brooklyn 2014-01: 69.5Brooklyn 2014-04: 71.3Brooklyn 2014-07: 70.9Brooklyn 2014-10: 74.1Brooklyn 2015-01: 81.4Brooklyn 2015-04: 83.2Brooklyn 2015-07: 82.5Brooklyn 2015-10: 85.5Brooklyn 2016-01: 85.0Brooklyn 2016-04: 86.7Brooklyn 2016-07: 85.7Brooklyn 2016-10: 88.3Brooklyn 2017-01: 87.7Brooklyn 2017-04: 89.4Brooklyn 2017-07: 89.0Brooklyn 2017-10: 92.0Brooklyn 2018-01: 94.3Brooklyn 2018-04: 96.5Brooklyn 2018-07: 95.9Brooklyn 2018-10: 99.4Brooklyn 2019-01: 97.7Brooklyn 2019-04: 99.9Brooklyn 2019-07: 99.6Brooklyn 2019-10: 102.7Brooklyn 2020-01: 102.0Brooklyn 2020-04: 83.5Brooklyn 2020-07: 90.2Brooklyn 2020-10: 95.6Brooklyn 2021-01: 93.7Brooklyn 2021-04: 96.6Brooklyn 2021-07: 96.3Brooklyn 2021-10: 101.5Brooklyn 2022-01: 101.2Brooklyn 2022-04: 104.4Brooklyn 2022-07: 104.1Brooklyn 2022-10: 107.1Brooklyn 2023-01: 107.4Brooklyn 2023-04: 109.6Brooklyn 2023-07: 109.2Brooklyn 2023-10: 112.2Brooklyn 2024-01: 113.6Brooklyn 2024-04: 116.1Brooklyn 2024-07: 115.5Brooklyn 2024-10: 119.4Brooklyn 2025-01: 121.9Brooklyn 2025-04: 113.7Brooklyn 2025-07: 113.2Brooklyn 2025-10: 116.2Brooklyn 2026-01: 115.9BrooklynManhattan 2010-01: 89.0Manhattan 2010-04: 90.3Manhattan 2010-07: 89.8Manhattan 2010-10: 91.8Manhattan 2011-01: 90.7Manhattan 2011-04: 92.0Manhattan 2011-07: 92.0Manhattan 2011-10: 93.9Manhattan 2012-01: 93.0Manhattan 2012-04: 94.2Manhattan 2012-07: 94.2Manhattan 2012-10: 95.9Manhattan 2013-01: 94.6Manhattan 2013-04: 95.9Manhattan 2013-07: 96.0Manhattan 2013-10: 98.4Manhattan 2014-01: 96.8Manhattan 2014-04: 98.4Manhattan 2014-07: 98.6Manhattan 2014-10: 101.0Manhattan 2015-01: 92.4Manhattan 2015-04: 93.7Manhattan 2015-07: 93.8Manhattan 2015-10: 96.0Manhattan 2016-01: 94.3Manhattan 2016-04: 95.3Manhattan 2016-07: 95.4Manhattan 2016-10: 97.3Manhattan 2017-01: 96.1Manhattan 2017-04: 97.2Manhattan 2017-07: 97.2Manhattan 2017-10: 99.0Manhattan 2018-01: 96.1Manhattan 2018-04: 97.3Manhattan 2018-07: 97.3Manhattan 2018-10: 99.3Manhattan 2019-01: 98.6Manhattan 2019-04: 99.9Manhattan 2019-07: 99.8Manhattan 2019-10: 101.6Manhattan 2020-01: 99.2Manhattan 2020-04: 80.9Manhattan 2020-07: 82.7Manhattan 2020-10: 85.6Manhattan 2021-01: 83.5Manhattan 2021-04: 85.5Manhattan 2021-07: 87.6Manhattan 2021-10: 91.7Manhattan 2022-01: 91.2Manhattan 2022-04: 93.4Manhattan 2022-07: 94.7Manhattan 2022-10: 96.3Manhattan 2023-01: 95.1Manhattan 2023-04: 96.0Manhattan 2023-07: 95.7Manhattan 2023-10: 96.7Manhattan 2024-01: 96.6Manhattan 2024-04: 97.7Manhattan 2024-07: 97.4Manhattan 2024-10: 98.8Manhattan 2025-01: 97.8Manhattan 2025-04: 98.1Manhattan 2025-07: 98.3Manhattan 2025-10: 99.5Manhattan 2026-01: 98.5ManhattanQueens 2010-01: 67.2Queens 2010-04: 69.2Queens 2010-07: 68.7Queens 2010-10: 69.4Queens 2011-01: 68.3Queens 2011-04: 70.1Queens 2011-07: 70.3Queens 2011-10: 71.1Queens 2012-01: 70.8Queens 2012-04: 72.4Queens 2012-07: 72.5Queens 2012-10: 73.6Queens 2013-01: 72.5Queens 2013-04: 74.4Queens 2013-07: 74.3Queens 2013-10: 75.4Queens 2014-01: 74.6Queens 2014-04: 77.0Queens 2014-07: 77.5Queens 2014-10: 78.9Queens 2015-01: 85.9Queens 2015-04: 88.2Queens 2015-07: 88.6Queens 2015-10: 90.1Queens 2016-01: 88.4Queens 2016-04: 90.2Queens 2016-07: 90.3Queens 2016-10: 92.1Queens 2017-01: 90.7Queens 2017-04: 92.4Queens 2017-07: 92.3Queens 2017-10: 93.9Queens 2018-01: 96.3Queens 2018-04: 98.1Queens 2018-07: 98.2Queens 2018-10: 99.7Queens 2019-01: 98.4Queens 2019-04: 100.2Queens 2019-07: 100.1Queens 2019-10: 101.3Queens 2020-01: 99.4Queens 2020-04: 79.1Queens 2020-07: 86.5Queens 2020-10: 90.6Queens 2021-01: 88.8Queens 2021-04: 91.5Queens 2021-07: 92.8Queens 2021-10: 95.7Queens 2022-01: 94.6Queens 2022-04: 97.3Queens 2022-07: 98.4Queens 2022-10: 99.8Queens 2023-01: 100.3Queens 2023-04: 102.7Queens 2023-07: 103.4Queens 2023-10: 104.5Queens 2024-01: 105.0Queens 2024-04: 107.1Queens 2024-07: 107.7Queens 2024-10: 109.1Queens 2025-01: 104.1Queens 2025-04: 104.8Queens 2025-07: 104.6Queens 2025-10: 105.1Queens 2026-01: 103.5QueensStaten Island 2010-01: 70.6Staten Island 2010-04: 73.4Staten Island 2010-07: 72.7Staten Island 2010-10: 74.2Staten Island 2011-01: 70.1Staten Island 2011-04: 71.9Staten Island 2011-07: 71.1Staten Island 2011-10: 72.7Staten Island 2012-01: 70.6Staten Island 2012-04: 72.0Staten Island 2012-07: 71.4Staten Island 2012-10: 73.3Staten Island 2013-01: 72.3Staten Island 2013-04: 74.7Staten Island 2013-07: 75.0Staten Island 2013-10: 77.2Staten Island 2014-01: 75.4Staten Island 2014-04: 77.2Staten Island 2014-07: 76.7Staten Island 2014-10: 78.7Staten Island 2015-01: 86.5Staten Island 2015-04: 88.4Staten Island 2015-07: 87.9Staten Island 2015-10: 91.3Staten Island 2016-01: 88.1Staten Island 2016-04: 90.1Staten Island 2016-07: 89.6Staten Island 2016-10: 91.8Staten Island 2017-01: 89.2Staten Island 2017-04: 90.6Staten Island 2017-07: 89.8Staten Island 2017-10: 92.3Staten Island 2018-01: 94.0Staten Island 2018-04: 96.1Staten Island 2018-07: 95.0Staten Island 2018-10: 98.6Staten Island 2019-01: 98.1Staten Island 2019-04: 99.9Staten Island 2019-07: 99.3Staten Island 2019-10: 102.6Staten Island 2020-01: 101.8Staten Island 2020-04: 82.4Staten Island 2020-07: 91.7Staten Island 2020-10: 97.8Staten Island 2021-01: 95.1Staten Island 2021-04: 97.8Staten Island 2021-07: 97.7Staten Island 2021-10: 102.9Staten Island 2022-01: 101.4Staten Island 2022-04: 102.2Staten Island 2022-07: 101.9Staten Island 2022-10: 104.7Staten Island 2023-01: 102.0Staten Island 2023-04: 103.2Staten Island 2023-07: 102.1Staten Island 2023-10: 105.9Staten Island 2024-01: 105.9Staten Island 2024-04: 106.6Staten Island 2024-07: 106.2Staten Island 2024-10: 109.2Staten Island 2025-01: 101.5Staten Island 2025-04: 107.0Staten Island 2025-07: 106.2Staten Island 2025-10: 109.5Staten Island 2026-01: 107.9Staten Island

2015 Q1: jobs reassigned between boroughs in the records; levels across that quarter are not comparable.

Share of hires going to 14 to 24 year-olds

Share of all hires going to 14 to 24 year-oldsBronx 2025: 17.5%; Brooklyn 2025: 17.1%; Manhattan 2025: 17.9%; Queens 2025: 17.0%; Staten Island 2025: 23.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%20052007200920112013201520172019202120232025BronxBrooklynManhattanQueensStaten Island

LEHD QWI, by workplace county, not seasonally adjusted.

Latest official youth figures

BoroughYouth unemployment rate, ages 16 to 24Not in school and not working, ages 16 to 19Youth share of hires
Bronx 22.9% ± 4.1 (2025)12.0% ± 3.2 (2025) 17.5%
Brooklyn 18.3% ± 2.5 (2025)7.9% ± 1.9 (2025) 17.1%
Manhattan 15.1% ± 3.0 (2025)6.2% ± 2.6 (2024) 17.9%
Queens 11.0% ± 2.0 (2025)4.9% ± 1.5 (2025) 17.0%
Staten Island 16.2% ± 4.7 (2025)5.3% ± 1.2 (2024, 5-year) 23.3%

ACS tables B23001 and B14005 with 90% margins of error; suppressed 1-year cells use the 5-year estimate.

Method and limits

The rule (fixed before any results)

  • All 5 boroughs, monthly, at least 5 years of 2010–2019 history.
  • Leads the official rate by at least 1 month, same direction in every borough.
  • From 2022, calls the rate's direction better than "latest change continues".
  • Significance corrected within each signal and across all signals; COVID (Mar 2020 – Dec 2021) set aside.

Main limitations

  • LAUS is not seasonally adjusted and is revised each year; vintage pulled 2026-11-11 02:26 UTC. 2025-10 interpolated (not published by BLS).
  • 2010–2019 had no recession, which limits what any lead test can show.
  • Granger tests show predictive precedence, not causation.
  • Workplace-based signals carry a basis mismatch against residence-based LAUS.
  • Full limitations and sources: reports/results.html and docs/source_inventory.csv.